Skip to content
PulseCredit

Consumer Credit · Financial-Stress Monitor

See the strain before it breaks.

PulseCredit tracks U.S. household financial stress in one instrument — forecasting credit-card delinquency, stress-testing it against unemployment shocks, and flagging anomalous surges in consumer complaints, all from keyless public data.

How it worksBuilt July 18, 2026 · latest observation Jan 2026

Card delinquency

2.92%

−0.14 pp YoY · Jan 2026

Forecast · next 4Q

2.88% ↓

easing to Q1 2027

+2pp unemployment

+0.28 pp

delinquency · R² 0.76

Complaint anomalies

5

flagged monthly spikes

Credit-card delinquency forecast

Observed rate (last 12 years) with a 4-quarter SARIMAX forecast and 80% confidence band.

Observed Forecast 80% band
1.31.92.63.23.9forecast →2014201620182021202320252027
Quarterly forecast values with 80% lower and upper bounds.
QuarterForecast80% lower80% upper
Q2 20262.90%2.68%3.13%
Q3 20262.89%2.49%3.30%
Q4 20262.89%2.32%3.46%
Q1 20272.88%2.15%3.61%

Forecast honesty note

Over an 8-quarter holdout, this SARIMAX model does not beat a naive last-value baseline. Model MAPE is 8.34% (RMSE 0.287) versus the naive 4.51% (RMSE 0.155). Delinquency is a slow, highly-persistent series, so “tomorrow looks like today” is hard to beat. The forecast is shown with its band and this scorecard rather than as a false promise of edge.

Unemployment shock scenarios

Predicted card delinquency under stepped unemployment shocks (OLS, 85 quarters).

+0pp unemployment
2.31%
base
+1pp unemployment
2.45%
+0.14 pp
+2pp unemployment
2.59%
+0.28 pp
+3pp unemployment
2.73%
+0.42 pp

OLS sensitivity: each +1pp of unemployment maps to +0.14 pp of credit-card delinquency, holding household debt-service (TDSP) fixed.

Complaint anomaly timeline

Monthly CFPB complaint volume; amber bars mark months with a flagged product-level spike.

0234k468k703k2020-01-01: 26,394 complaints2020-02-01: 25,079 complaints2020-03-01: 29,480 complaints2020-04-01: 34,794 complaints2020-05-01: 36,987 complaints2020-06-01: 37,888 complaints2020-07-01: 40,639 complaints2020-08-01: 39,187 complaints2020-09-01: 39,875 complaints2020-10-01: 43,975 complaints2020-11-01: 41,541 complaints2020-12-01: 48,375 complaints2021-01-01: 42,475 complaints2021-02-01: 33,262 complaints2021-03-01: 41,172 complaints (flagged spike)2021-04-01: 39,665 complaints2021-05-01: 41,312 complaints2021-06-01: 45,732 complaints2021-07-01: 45,075 complaints2021-08-01: 42,584 complaints2021-09-01: 40,371 complaints2021-10-01: 39,295 complaints2021-11-01: 39,069 complaints2021-12-01: 45,927 complaints2022-01-01: 53,229 complaints2022-02-01: 53,185 complaints2022-03-01: 61,896 complaints2022-04-01: 72,244 complaints2022-05-01: 60,377 complaints2022-06-01: 61,871 complaints2022-07-01: 64,440 complaints2022-08-01: 69,258 complaints2022-09-01: 65,778 complaints2022-10-01: 75,792 complaints2022-11-01: 77,039 complaints2022-12-01: 85,146 complaints2023-01-01: 93,933 complaints (flagged spike)2023-02-01: 86,539 complaints2023-03-01: 110,635 complaints2023-04-01: 97,086 complaints2023-05-01: 106,211 complaints2023-06-01: 104,425 complaints2023-07-01: 106,773 complaints2023-08-01: 119,711 complaints2023-09-01: 112,887 complaints2023-10-01: 117,420 complaints2023-11-01: 113,365 complaints2023-12-01: 123,066 complaints2024-01-01: 143,366 complaints2024-02-01: 157,614 complaints (flagged spike)2024-03-01: 177,815 complaints (flagged spike)2024-04-01: 191,120 complaints2024-05-01: 211,961 complaints2024-06-01: 204,168 complaints2024-07-01: 232,654 complaints2024-08-01: 263,815 complaints2024-09-01: 264,821 complaints2024-10-01: 295,878 complaints2024-11-01: 287,077 complaints2024-12-01: 303,979 complaints2025-01-01: 475,783 complaints (flagged spike)2025-02-01: 335,236 complaints2025-03-01: 396,974 complaints2025-04-01: 406,102 complaints2025-05-01: 415,185 complaints2025-06-01: 412,162 complaints2025-07-01: 473,197 complaints2025-08-01: 495,576 complaints2025-09-01: 503,851 complaints2025-10-01: 519,788 complaints2025-11-01: 496,661 complaints2025-12-01: 512,475 complaints2026-01-01: 541,246 complaints2026-02-01: 497,061 complaints2026-03-01: 614,809 complaints2026-04-01: 618,014 complaints2026-05-01: 623,666 complaints2026-06-01: 650,510 complaints2026-07-01: 303,859 complaints2020-012021-022022-032023-042024-052025-062026-07

Top flagged anomalies

Top consumer-complaint anomalies by z-score, with month, product, monthly volume, rolling mean, and severity.
MonthProductVolumeRolling meanz-scoreSeverity
Jan 2025Checking or savings account18,3675,5963.16σElevated
Jan 2023Checking or savings account6,3953,4183.08σElevated
Mar 2021Debt collection6,7404,9152.91σElevated
Mar 2024Debt collection12,3546,5832.79σElevated
Feb 2024Debt collection8,7726,0782.71σWatch

What is computed vs. proposed

Every figure on this page is computed from live public data: the delinquency forecast (SARIMAX with an 80% band and an honest backtest), the unemployment-shock scenarios (OLS on FRED UNRATE + TDSP), and the complaint anomalies (rolling z-scores on the CFPB trends API). Nothing here is a projection of proposed or hypothetical data — the sources file lists no proposed domains. Natural extensions (regional breakdowns, richer macro drivers, regime-aware models) are noted in Methodology as future work, not shown as results.